In the past countries come in and out of existence by organizing wars across the world and with that they aimed to carve out their territories. Nowadays, with the borders delineation it is very rare new countries to emerge, which is why South Sudan as a country in 2011 was widely popularized, independence of Kosovo in 2008 and the reunification of Germany in 1990.
In the coming years, we may see some of the regions to get their own way and forge new states. This are ten new countries which are more likely to emerge by 2026.
In September 2014, Scotland held a fully sanctioned independence referendum for creating the new state. The final results “No” received 55% and “Yes” vote received 45% support. During the Brexit vote of 23 June 2016, 62% of Scottish voters voted to remain (38% of voters voted to leave the EU). There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK. The desire to stay in EU made a chance for new referendum within two years and it is very possible Scotland to become a new country.
The new independent Scotland will have largest resource of oil from the North Sea which can make the new nation very wealthy.
Like Scotland, many analysts think that London has a chance of splitting in the future. London is the leading global city in all aspects, it is a world cultural capital, is the world’s most-visited city (measured by international arrivals), is the world’s leading investment destination, and in 2012, London became the first city who hosted the modern Summer Olympic Games three times.
In London are spoken more than 300 languages and its estimated mid-2016 municipal population (corresponding to Greater London) was 8,787,892. It is the largest of any city in the European Union.
For several years some politicians are debating about London’s status within the United Kingdom. In 2016 on the UK EU referendum the UK as a whole voted to leave the European Union (at 52% leave), although the majority of London voted for the UK to remain in the EU (60% remain). For some the idea of London independence is unrealistic and some of them think that the city-state of London would benefit by no longer needing to send money to the rest of the UK. The rest of the UK would benefit by ending London’s political dominance.
The Kurds were one of the biggest losers of WWI. They are ethnic group from the Middle East, which found their homeland split between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Since then, they’ve been fighting for an independent Kurdish state. With the political chaos and violence in the Middle East, the Kurdish question, which is one of the region’s most protracted conflicts, has been brought to the fore.
A binding independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan has been scheduled to be held on 25 September 2017. It was originally planned to be held in 2014 amidst controversy and dispute between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government of Iraq.
Masoud Barzani, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), announced plans to hold a referendum on independence for the northern Kurdistan region. While a “Yes” vote, which is widely expected to be the result, would not lead to an automatic declaration of independence, it would to give Iraqi Kurds, who make up about 20 percent of the population, more leverage in talks on self-determination with the central government.
Catalonia is region of Spain located on the northeast coast of Mediterranean Sea bordering France and Andorra. Under four decades of the Franco dictatorship in the 20th century, the Spanish government suppressed Catalan language and culture. One of the main reasons behind the Catalan independence movement is the desire to protect the local culture, which revolves around the Catalan language. Like Spanish, Catalan is a Romance language that evolved from Latin after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in the 5th century CE.Since 2009, several local non-binding referendums on independence have been held in Catalonia. In 2014 Catalans held the most recent of these referendums, with more than 80% of voters choosing independence.
Because Catalan culture extends well beyond Catalonia, by many sources Catalan independence movement are in economic rather than cultural terms. Catalonia is one of the wealthiest parts of Spain, and with Spain’s current economic crisis and issues have the potential to bind indigenous Catalans with migrants from other parts of Spain who now live in the region.
It is still unclear whether most Catalans want full independence or merely enhanced autonomy. Even so, Catalonia appears to be well on the path “by which the citizens of Catalonia will be able to choose their political future as a people”, as stated in the recently adopted Catalan Sovereignty Declaration.
After the ferocious civil war, 26 years ago, north-west Somalia broke away from the rest of the country and declared independence. Even through not a single country recognises Somaliland, this territory is one of the more stable democratic places in the Horn of Africa with 3.5 million people.
The main obstacle to recognition is the desire of the international community to maintain existing territorial boundaries. Since the borders were drawn by European colonial powers, the African map has had just two major changes: the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia and South Sudan from Sudan.
However, Somaliland had relatively peaceful democratic transition of power in the Horn of Africa’s recent history, with no terror attack since 2008, and has largely recovered from the Somali Civil War, which left the region’s capital, Hargeisa, bombed to ruins. It has its own banking system, international airport, military, and government, had six democratic elections, including the 2010 Presidental election, the first.
Recognised Somaliland in the near future may be a blessing in disguise. The independence cause is the glue that binds Somalilanders together. If they were granted recognition, could it be possible that they too might fall to fighting, just like their southern neighbours or would the recognizing Somaliland open a Pandora’s box for other regions seeking autonomy?
The United States of Europe
Winston Churcill in 1946 first issued the call for a ‘United States of Europe’ having in mind that there is no other way to stop Europe from imploding under the weight of another bruising war. Since then, many have repeated his call and In September 2015 in Rome, as a direct challenge to David Cameron’s claims of British sovereignty, Germany, France, Italy and Luxembourg signed a document calling for the creation of a “general union of states”, which has only now come to light.
The further integrated union would not only take a central hold over economic and fiscal matters, as well as internal markets, but would also include social and cultural affairs and foreign, security and defence policy of member states.
The Shetlands and Orkney
The island groups of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles are all politically integral parts of Scotland. They are council areas with the same constitutional status as the other 29 local government areas. The three island councils are the only local authorities among the 32 in the country where independent councillors form a majority.
Because of the Noruse rule, the Shetlands and Orkney feel more connection to Scandinavia than Scotland. They tend to be much more pro-UK than Scots, and voted heavily to stay in the union during the Scottish referendum. The islanders overwhelmingly backed remaining in the UK and the European Union at both referendums in 2014 and 2016.
Orkney and Shetland each has a distinctive culture, natural wonders and a number of fascinating geological sites. Lying off Positioned in Scotland’s north coast, surrounded by crystal-clear waters, these two archipelagos are rather special places indeed.
North Korea and South Korea have been divided by the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), for 62 years. They are not divided only geographically, even though they have thousands of years of common heritage. Their economies and social structures have diverged and relations between the two nations are heated, often seeming only a few diplomatic missteps away from war. In 1948, North Korea founded a communist government and on the other hand South Korea has a democratic political system.
Secretly in 1972, the two nations met to outline an agreement for a possible reunification. However, the coalition disbanded in the following year. The two countries again met in 1990, 2000 and 2007 but each time failed to reach a resolution. In 2000, 2004 and 2006, the international community gained hope about future reunification efforts after a reunified Korean team marched in the Olympics (though the nations competed separately).
South Korea’s president in July 2014, appointed a special committee to prepare for possible unification between the two nations. Despite the potential economic benefits, a number of political, financial and social costs must be overcome to make reunification possible. North Korea has the least free economy in the world. Advancing North Korea from a state-run economy under a dictatorship to a globalized 21st-century free economy will require immense time and resources.
The possible reunification between North Korea and South Korea is a source of interest for both nations. But the cultural, political and economic barriers exist. A potential collapse of North Korea’s political, economic or social fabric could suddenly expedite reunification.
Vojvodina and Republika Srpska
As a result of series of political upheavals and conflicts, occurred the brakeup of Yugoslavia in 1990s. After the World War II was set up the federation of 6 republics, and in Serbia were established 2 autonomous provinces Vojvodina nad Kosovo. The brakeup of Yugoslavia is not over yet. There are at two candidates left for independence: Vojvodina in Serbia, and Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
In 2009 Vojvodina had a population of two millions and has been agitating for independence. According the analyses the majority of the local residents 65% of whom are Serbs want autonomy mainly for economic reasons. While no referendums have been called, events could yet put a fire under Vojvodina’s autonomous government.
Republic of Srpska is recognized as an administrative entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, through Dayton Peace Agreement, who ended the Bosnian War. Bosnia and Herzegovina become federal republic with two entities the Bosniak and Croat-inhabited Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and the Serb-inhabited Republika Srpska (RS).
By the declaration of Kosovo independence and Montenegrin independence referendum in 2006, the issue of RS’s referendum and possibility of unification with Serbia was raised. In 2015, RS government SNSD called for independence referendum in 2018. Many institutions and organizations think that if RS autonomy is not preserved the crisis that follow escalate in another civil war.
East and West Libya
In February 2011 Libya had overthrown a dictator Muammar Gaddafi that had repressed their country for decades. In the past year, Libya has been through a transformation process, making it an interesting study of modern nation building. On August 9, Libya’s current transitional government elected its new president, Mohammed Magarief, who has harder task- to create democracy, which is very challenging because of the total lack of existing institutions.
Going forward, Libya faces two major challenges. The short term challenge is recovering from the revolution, specifically in disarming the militias in the long term, resource management is a major issue.
In December 2015 was signed the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), which was the result of protracted negotiations between rival political camps based in the capital, Tripoli, Tobruk and elsewhere which agreed to unite as the Government of National Accord who was formed as a result of this agreement. Although the Government of National Accord is now functioning, its authority is still unclear as specific details acceptable to both sides have not yet been agreed upon.
Amid all this chaos, East and West Libya have begun to pull apart from one another and it is more likely they split into separate states.
The UN government managed to control the West and the government loyal to renegade General Khalifa Haftar controls most of the East. Both governments claim to speak for Libya, have their own infrastructure and Central Banks, they issued their own, rival currencies across the country, fuelling fears of a coming split.
The possibility of the country coming together in this point are likely doomed, unless the UN-backed government gets some serious Western funding to forestall economic implosion. This would lead to the creation of two new states, each facing a massive uphill struggle against terrorism and financial instability.